Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined fossil fuel composed of hydrocarbons. It serves as a primary energy source and a critical input for fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as for a wide range of petrochemical products. The two main global benchmarks are West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which reflects U.S. market conditions, and Brent crude, the leading international reference sourced from the North Sea. Oil prices both influence and are influenced by political developments: they affect inflation, fiscal stability, and trade balances, while policies, conflicts, and production agreements can directly alter supply and price levels. Learn more

In September 2026, crude oil prices experienced a sharp upward surge and elevated volatility across both major benchmarks. As shown in Figure 1 and Table 1, Brent crude opened the month at $96.02 per barrel and closed at $113.96, marking an absolute increase of $17.94, or 18.7 percent. The monthly average for Brent was $114.24, with a peak of $130.80 and a trough of $96.02, yielding a price range of $34.78. WTI followed a similar but less extreme trajectory, starting at $91.48 and ending at $96.16, a gain of $4.68, or 5.1 percent. WTI averaged $98.55, with a high of $107.02 and a low of $91.48. Volatility, measured as the standard deviation of daily prices, reached 9.15 for Brent and 4.32 for WTI, indicating significant intra-month price swings, particularly for Brent.

Compared to August 2026, September represented a dramatic acceleration in both price levels and market turbulence. Brent’s average price jumped from $91.81 in August to $114.24 in September, an increase of $22.43, or 24.4 percent. WTI’s average rose from $84.65 to $98.55, a gain of $13.90, or 16.4 percent. Volatility more than tripled for Brent, rising from 2.92 to 9.15, and nearly doubled for WTI, from 2.20 to 4.32. The price range for Brent expanded from $9.30 in August to $34.78 in September, while WTI’s range widened from $7.44 to $15.54. This shift from a relatively stable, low-volatility environment in August to a sharp upward breakout in September marks a clear turning point in market sentiment.

Over the last 12 months, September 2026 stands out as an exceptional month, with average prices far exceeding the prior annual trend. From March 2025 through August 2026, Brent’s monthly average fluctuated between $62.46 and $91.81, while WTI ranged from $57.90 to $84.65. September 2026’s Brent average of $114.24 is the highest monthly average in the entire 12-month window, surpassing the previous peak of $91.81 by a wide margin. Similarly, WTI’s average of $98.55 is the highest since at least March 2025, exceeding the prior high of $84.65. The month’s peak Brent price of $130.80 is also the highest single-day price recorded in the dataset. This represents a structural break from the relatively range-bound trading that characterized most of the prior year, with September 2026 prices sitting well above the upper bound of the previous 12-month distribution.