This insight focuses on the crude oil price in May 2026. Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined fossil fuel composed of hydrocarbons. It serves as a primary energy source and a critical input for fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as for a wide range of petrochemical products. The two main global benchmarks are West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which reflects U.S. market conditions, and Brent crude, the leading international reference sourced from the North Sea. Oil prices both influence and are influenced by political developments: they affect inflation, fiscal stability, and trade balances, while policies, conflicts, and production agreements can directly alter supply and price levels. Learn more

In May 2026, crude oil prices exhibited a modest recovery from the sharp declines seen in the prior month. As shown in Figure 1 and Table 1, Brent crude averaged 64.56 USD per barrel, while WTI averaged 62.25 USD per barrel. Both benchmarks started the month at relatively low levels, with Brent opening at 61.57 USD and WTI at 59.67 USD, and ended the month higher, with Brent closing at 64.32 USD and WTI at 61.46 USD. The overall trend was upward, though price movements were contained, with Brent's volatility at 1.8 and WTI's at 1.75, indicating a period of relative stability compared to the turbulence of the previous month.

Compared to April 2026, May 2026 marked a clear reversal in direction. In April, both Brent and WTI had experienced severe declines, with Brent falling by 19.28% and WTI by 15.99%, and volatility was elevated at 3.24 and 2.77, respectively. In May, the average prices for Brent and WTI were 64.56 USD and 62.25 USD, which were lower than April's averages of 67.36 USD and 63.01 USD, but the month ended with gains. The key difference was the shift from a steep downtrend to a moderate uptrend, with volatility dropping sharply, suggesting that the market had found a temporary floor and was stabilizing after the April sell-off.

Positioning May 2026 within the last 12 months reveals that prices remained near the lower end of the annual range. The 12-month period from June 2025 to May 2026 saw Brent prices fluctuate between a low of 59.93 USD in December 2025 and a high of 80.37 USD in June 2025, with WTI ranging from 55.44 USD in December 2025 to 75.89 USD in June 2025. The May 2026 averages of 64.56 USD for Brent and 62.25 USD for WTI were below the 12-month averages for both benchmarks, which were approximately 67.5 USD for Brent and 63.7 USD for WTI. This indicates that May's prices were below the broader trend, reflecting the lingering effects of the April downturn and a market that had not yet recovered to the levels seen in the middle of the previous year.